|
چکیده
|
We document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The research population is Tehran stock exchange. Using systematic sampling method, 311 companies were selected as sample. The research period is from 2001 to 2013. In order to test the reliability of the research variables, Levene's test, Dickey–Fuller test and Phillips–Peron test were used. Chow test, Fisher test, Durbin-Watson test and Wald test were used to estimate the research models. According to the research findings, the growth of future GDP can be predicted through accounting earnings and GDP growth forecast errors (research variables). Explanatory power and information contents of two variables are not enough to explain the volatility of future GDP growth in economy of Iran. The reason of this issue is that the number of companies listed on the Tehran stock exchange is very few as well as their effects on the formation of the national economic statistics is very low. The Iranian economy is heavily dependent on the crude oil and gas sector and oil and gas revenues is much more than the total revenue of the companies listed on the Tehran stock exchange.
|