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چکیده
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Recent earthquakes have highlighted the need for the development of methodologies for lifeline seismic risk assessment. The present research seeks a methodology for seismic risk assessment of power supply systems which consists of three parts: First, a comprehensive method to evaluate the connectivity of electric power substations is presented. Second, two probabilistic approaches are formulated for physical seismic damage analysis in the power lines and paths. Third, a real time approach is developed for flow connectivity analysis of whole network from the view point of path of flow using above two approaches. As a case study, a network of an existing power supply system is analyzed. Then computer software has been developed for the proposed methodologies. As a case study, a network of an existing power supply system is analyzed. Disruption times of the flow under seismic environments are simulated based on the proposed methodology and compared with actual data of the performance of electric power supply systems in past earthquakes. It turned out that the methodology is effective for the risk assessment. Obtained results are summarized as follows: (1) Seismic analyses of power substation equipments are complicated but results of FEM analysis proved good accuracy of this method by actual data in past earthquakes, (2) Physical damage assessment method for segment and link in the path is proposed using fragility functions under various seismic hazards, (3) Time dependent flow volume in paths is evaluated as the functional connectivity of power networks based on the physical assessment approach, and (4) The proposed methods are applied to a large scale of existing power supply network for the seismic risk assessment of the disruption time as the power lifeline function. Applied results show the good tendency as to restoration curves when compared with ones during past earthquakes.
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