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چکیده
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This paper develops a method to evaluate economic impacts by interruption of power supply system from seismic hazards based on probabilistic approach. In this study, a real time methodology is proposed for loss estimation of power supply system due to a probable future earthquake. The methodology integrates physical damage assessment, power flow connectivity, post-earthquake restoration, and business interruption to estimate direct and indirect economic losses. Direct economic losses in power supply systems are defined as repair costs of damaged equipments, power selling, and expense of emergency supplied electric power, which are formulated probabilistically. Major indirect economical losses due to interruption of power supply are business interruption, loss of data and perishable goods, and disruption of other interdependent lifelines. This study develops a probabilistic approach to evaluate the business interruption loss caused by power outage arising from seismic damages. The approach integrates Gross Regional Product (GRP), percentage of unsupplied power and time to repair. As a case study, electric power network of Tehran Regional Electric Company (TREC) is analyzed taking into account of wave propagation, liquefaction, landslide, and fault rupture. All types of power substations, power posts, poles, transmission and distribution power lines are considered in the analyses. Total estimated loss including direct and indirect losses are 558 million US$. Total estimated loss for Tehran power system is a big loss considering the costs of repair, material price, and labor salary in Iran.
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