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Hamid Farvaresh

Hamid Farvaresh

Academic rank: Associate Professor
ORCID: 0000-0002-9979-7712
Education: PhD.
ScopusId: 36124788700
Faculty: Faculty of Engineering
Address: Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
Phone: +988733624019

Research

Title
Intelligent Sales Prediction for Pharmaceutical Distribution Companies: A Data Mining Based Approach
Type
JournalPaper
Keywords
Sales forecasting, Neural networks, Network based analysis, Pharmaceutical distribution companies
Year
2014
Journal MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING
DOI
Researchers Neda Khalil Zadeh ، Mohammad Mehdi Sepehri ، Hamid Farvaresh

Abstract

One of the problems of pharmaceutical distribution companies (PDCs) is how to control inventory levels in order to prevent costs of excessive inventory and to prevent losing customers due to drug shortage. Consequently, the purpose of this study is to propose a novel method to forecast sales of PDCs. The presented method is a combination of network analysis tools and time series forecasting methods. Due to lack of enough past sales records of each drug, an explorative network based analysis is conducted to find clique sets and group members and to use comembers’ sales data in their sales prediction. Afterwards, time series sales forecasting models were built with three different approaches including ARIMA methodology, neural network, and an advanced hybrid neural network approach. The offered hybrid method by applying each drug and its comembers past records facilitates capturing both linear and nonlinear patterns of sales accurately. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated by a real dataset provided by one of the leading PDCs in Iran. The results indicated that the proposed method is able to cope with low number of past records while it forecasts medicines sales accurately