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Abstract
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A lot of direct and indirect losses incurred by damage to lifeline systems during past earthquakes require the development of methodologies for loss estimation of lifeline systems. The aim of this paper is to evaluate economic impact by interruption of power supply system from seismic hazards. In this study, a real time methodology is proposed for loss estimation of power supply system due to a probable future earthquake. The methodology integrates physical damage assessment, power flow connectivity, post-earthquake restoration, and business interruption to estimate direct and indirect economic losses. Direct economic losses in power supply systems are defined as repair costs of damaged equipments, power selling, and expense of emergency supplied flow. Major indirect economical losses due to interruption of power supply are business interruption, loss of data and perishable goods, and disruption of other interdependent lifelines. As a case study, electric power network of Tehran Regional Electric Company (TREC) is analyzed taking account of wave propagation, liquefaction, landslide, and fault rupture. All types of power substations, power posts, poles, transmission and distribution power lines are analyzed. The number of damages along the aerial and underground lines calculated under all the seismic hazards. Total estimated loss including direct and indirect losses are 558 million US$. Total estimated direct loss by 475 million US$ is much less than the total direct loss of power supply system in the 1995 Kobe Earthquake by 2 billion US$ but much more than the total direct loss of power supply system in the 1994 Northridge Earthquake by 183 million US$. Total estimated loss for Tehran power system is a big loss considering the costs of repair, material price, and labor salary in Iran.
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