Progressive approaches for incorporating directivity effects in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis need a reliable model to predict the pulse observing probability. This study proposes a new model that predicts the probability of observing pulse-like ground motion at a site, using the source rupture characteristics as the predictor variables. As a result, a new three-dimensional source-to-site geometry is used to define a directivity parameter. The resulting predictive model can be incorporated into the near-fault seismic hazard analysis. This proposed prediction model is validated by comparing the estimated results with those observed at near-field stations during the previous events. These comparative results showed that the proposed model agrees well with the available near-fault ground motion data from different earthquake scenarios.
